2024 Cherry Blossom Peak Bloom Forecasts

The latest information and forecasts on when Washington DC’s cherry blossoms around the Tidal Basin will reach peak bloom in Spring 2024.

Photo of Cherry Blossoms in Washington DC taken by David Coleman.
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The cherry blossoms reached peak bloom on March 17, 2024. That's the second-earliest on record.

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Latest Updates on the 2024 Bloom
Peak Bloom Forecasts in Detail

On average, DC’s cherry blossoms bloom around the last week of March into the first week of April. But it varies from year to year based on weather conditions, so it can also be a little before or after that period.

This page tracks the latest information on the coming DC cherry blossom bloom. I update it on a rolling basis as new information becomes available.

You can find the latest detailed updates for the 2024 bloom here.

Latest Updates from the Tidal Basin

You can track the latest updates (with photos from the Tidal Basin) in these updates.

DC Cherry Blossom Peak Bloom Predictions for 2024

National Park Service

  • March 23 – 261

Washington Post Capital Weather Gang

  • March 19 – 232

NBC Storm Team 4

  • March 243

The bloom is typically around late March to early April, but precisely when in that period is very much dependent on the weather conditions in the weeks and months leading up to it.

Cooler temperatures bring a later bloom. Warmer temperatures bring an earlier bloom.

So far, the winter has averaged significantly warmer than average. Yes, there have been some cold snaps, but overall, temperatures have been quite a bit above average. You can see this clearly in the temperature charts below. The first half of March has been significantly warmer than average, with some days reaching mid-70s. That has accelerated the process and is pushing an earlier-than-normal bloom.

Hotels Near the Tidal Basin

These are within easy walking distance of the Tidal Basin:

I also have a more detailed post on where to stay for Washington DC’s cherry blossoms that includes a wider range of options.

When Do Washington DC’s Cherry Blossoms Bloom?

Warmer temperatures in the late winter into early spring bring the blossoms out earlier. Cooler temperatures push them later. The flowers generally last a week or two–but again, just how long they stay around depends on the weather.

In recent decades, the bloom has been trending earlier. (Of course, there are always exceptions!)

Winter 2023-24 in Washington DC

Now that we’re into February, we’re starting to get a sense of how the winter is shaking out. And, so far, it has been warmer than normal. Not that it has always felt that way–there have been some cold snaps. But the overall average for each of December, January, and February have been above normal. You can see more detail on that in the tables below.

Long-Range Winter Forecasts for the Washington DC Region

There are some long-range general winter forecasts coming out. Of course, they should be taken with a large dose of salt, but most suggest a more wintry winter than we’ve had in the most recent years. So colder and more snow, with El Niño poised to impact.

Washington Post Capital Weather Gang Winter Outlook

In a November 9 article, they wrote:

We’re anticipating a harsher winter ahead, and one that is much more satisfying for those who love the snow.

Snow itself doesn’t have much effect on the bloom of the cherry blossoms. It’s much more about temperatures. And this is what they said about those:

Temperature-wise, we’re leaning toward slightly cooler than normal conditions overall, with a particularly cold February following temperatures closer to normal in December and January.

And they got even more specific with a long-range forecast of February being 2 to 3 degrees cooler than average.

That last point, in particular, is relevant. If it pans out that way, and if those cold temperatures continue into March, it would suggest a later bloom. But there are “ifs” piled on top of “ifs” there, and it’s not enough to rise much above a guess.

And it’s not all a picture of cold and snow. In a shorter-term outlook, they’ve predicted that December will be “slightly warm and not too snowy.”

NBC Storm Team4 Winter Outlook

The weather team at the local NBC station are seeing things very similarly. They wrote on November 6:

We expect December to be about average or a little bit above. January will have near to slightly below average temperatures, while February could be our coldest month — and our stormiest.

Other Perspectives

For some other perspectives, the Washington Post polled other local weather experts. Most favored the likelihood of snowier than we’ve seen in recent years, but, interestingly, their temperature predictions were more varied. Several predicted overall winter temperatures slightly above average.

Tracking Temperatures So Far

You can see how temperatures so far this winter are tracking in the tables and graphs below.

This first table shows the monthly averages leading up to the peak bloom for the past decade or so. The most important columns are March and February—the temperatures in those months closest to the bloom have the heaviest influence on the timing of the blossoms opening. A very warm early March can bring the bloom forward considerably (conversely, a much colder early March can slow things to a crawl).

DecemberJanuaryFebruaryMarchPeak Bloom Date
2023-24+3.8+2.3+4.4+9.4March 17
2022-23-1.6+7.7+6.8+1.5ˤMarch 23
2021-22+5.9-2.9+2.6+5.0March 21
2020-21+1.7+2.6-1.2+4.2March 28
2019-20+2.4+6.4+4.8+7.3*March 20
2018-19+3.8+1.2+3.2+0.0April 1
2017-18-0.5-0.3+6.3-3.2April 5
2016-17+2.1+6.1+8.7-0.7*March 25
2015-16+11.5-1.1+0.9+6.5*March 25
2014-15+4.0-0.4-8.7-1.5April 10
2013-14+2.6-3.8-1.2-3.9April 10
2012-13+5.9+4.3-0.7-3.0April 9
2011-12+4.9+4.7+5.3+10March 20
2010-11--1.3+3.6-0.9March 29
Data sources: National Weather Service / National Park Service.
ˤ = partial month, in progress
* = up until peak bloom

And here’s how we’re tracking on a day-by-day basis this winter. The red line represents the historical average temperature. The blue line represents the corresponding daily averages for this winter. In other words, above the red line is warmer than normal; below the red line is below average. The data used in this graph are taken from the National Weather Service’s recordings from National Airport, which you can easily see just across the Potomac from the Tidal Basin.

And here’s a similar but yet slightly different way of looking at it. This shows more directly how far each day has departed from the historical average. The horizontal 0 line represents the historical average. Each vertical bar represents a day. A bar above the 0 line represents warmer than the historical average. A bar below the 0 line represents cooler than the historical average. As you can see, there are many more days above the average–and by a good margin–than there are below the average.

2024 National Cherry Blossom Festival

The 2024 National Cherry Blossom Festival is scheduled to run from March 20 to April 14. (Interestingly, that’s the same start date as originally planned last year before they moved that forward by a couple of days in light of 2023’s early bloom.)

Here are the announced dates for some of the key events:

  • Opening Ceremony: Saturday, March 23, 2024
  • Kite Festival: Saturday, March 30, 2024
  • PetalPalooza: Saturday, April 6, 2024
  • Parade: Saturday, April 13, 2024 (Tickets)

Tidal Basin Restoration Project

If you’ve visited the Tidal Basin in recent years, there’s a good chance you’ve seen some of the sea wall and banks underwater at some point. It used to be rare and notable, but it has become a daily occurrence in some parts of the perimeter. It’s due to a combination of rising sea levels and sinking foundations (much of the area is built on reclaimed land). (The Washington Post has a great feature on the problem here.)

The National Park Service is finally in a position to act on it, and after the 2024 bloom, the restoration project will begin in May 2024. It’s anticipated to take two years, which will obviously impact the 2025 and 2026 cherry blossom blooms.

The total cost is budgeted for $112.8 million. It affects about 1.2 miles in total of sections of the Tidal Basin and West Potomac Park sea walls and is designed to make them viable for another century. It’s part of a larger effort to improve the National Mall in advance of the 2026 marking of the 250th anniversary of American independence.

The sea wall will be raised nearly five feet higher, drainage will be improved, and they’ll make the walkways wider. And to do that, they’ll be cutting down 300 cherry trees, including 159 from the Tidal Basin itself (including Stumpy). They’ll be replaced by 400 new cherry trees at the conclusion of the project.

Questions?

How Long Do the Flowers Stay Out? What if I Miss Peak Bloom?

The day the cherry blossoms reach peak bloom is not, of course, the only day you can see the flowers. At a minimum, you can expect a beautiful sight for at least a few days before the peak bloom date and at least a few days after. Sometimes they can be out for a couple of weeks.

How long they remain out depends heavily on weather conditions. In ideal conditions (cool, dry, calm), there can still be flowers to see a week or even more after the peak bloom date. So there might be a period of two weeks or more when the flowers look beautiful. In less-than-ideal conditions (wet, windy, hot, stormy), the flowers disappear more quickly, perhaps a week or less. I’ve put together a timeline with photos from previous years to give an idea of what you can expect to see during the different stages of the bloom.

The crucial point is that you don’t have to be there precisely on peak bloom day to be greeted with a beautiful sight. There are still flowers to see in the days before and after that.

If you’re too early for the main cherry blossoms, your timing might be good for saucer magnolias. There’s a particularly beautiful collection of them in the garden behind the Smithsonian Castle, but there are plenty of others scattered around the city, including a small grove at the George Mason Memorial next to the Tidal Basin. Another good spot for them is Rawlins Park in Foggy Bottom (across the other side of the National Mall).

And if you’re too late for the Yoshino peak bloom by two or three weeks, you might be in luck with a different variety that is also very pretty: the Kwanzan cherry blossoms. Tulips are another spring highlight around the area, and you can find them at a number of places around the National Mall as well as further afield.

Common Questions About the Cherry Blossom Peak Bloom Forecasts

Here are some answers to some of the common questions I get asked.

Do the Peak Bloom Predictions Change?

Yes. It’s common for them to be revised as we get closer to the bloom. In particular, the timing of the bloom depends heavily on the weather (specifically, temperatures). And, as we all know, weather predictions don’t always match reality.

This is why it’s worth checking back to this page for the current forecasts or signing up to get updates using one of the methods described below.

How are the Peak Bloom Predictions Made?

There are three parts that go into the mix for making the NPS peak bloom predictions.

  1. The first is a mathematical model that basically assigns heat points for temperatures. In the horticultural world, it’s known as a growing degree-days (GDD) calculation. Once the trees wake up from their winter dormancy, there are thresholds for a certain number of heat points to bring them to bloom.
  2. The second is actually looking at the trees to see how they’re developing. Sometimes the mathematical model doesn’t match what they actually see on the trees, as happened in 2018 when the model predicted a much earlier bloom than ended up happening because the buds got stuck in the green bud stage for much longer than expected.
  3. The third part, and the most unstable element of the whole thing, consists of weather forecasts looking weeks ahead. We all know only too well just how unreliable forecasts that far ahead can be, and that’s the main reason that the peak bloom predictions can change quite a lot and why the NPS arborists aren’t really comfortable with their predictions until about ten days out.

What Does “Peak Bloom” Mean & Why Is It a Date Range?

The peak bloom date is the day on which the NPS horticulturists judge that 70 percent of the Yoshino blossoms are out. There are a number of different varieties of cherry trees around and near the Tidal Basin, but the Yoshino variety is by far the most numerous and famous.

“Peak Bloom” is a specific day that the threshold is passed. So when a forecast expects peak bloom between such and such dates, it means that they expect the 70 percent threshold to be crossed one day during that range.

It does not mean that the flowers will be at peak bloom for that entire date range. It also does not mean that you have to be there only on that specific day to catch the spectacle. More on that below.

I have more detail in a separate post explaining the ins and outs of peak bloom.

How Accurate Are Peak Bloom Forecasts?

The NPS arborists are the first to point out that they’re not really confident in their prediction until about ten days out.

And nature has a way of being unpredictable sometimes, as the 2017 bloom proved. There are so many variables that can come into play, especially since the prediction is based on long-range weather forecasts a month or more out.

Sometimes, the predictions nail it. Other times, Mother Nature has other plans, and it’s not at all unusual for the forecasts to be revised as we get closer to the date as the actual weather conditions diverge from the long-range weather forecast the peak bloom predictions initially relied on.

So the peak bloom forecasts are the best information we have to go on, but that doesn’t mean things always pan out as expected, and it’s quite common for the forecasts to change. So be sure to keep checking in for any updates. I keep the peak bloom forecasts page up to date with the latest information.

Are There Any Other Peak Bloom Forecasts?

The two to watch are the forecasts by the National Park Service and the Washington Post‘s Capital Weather Gang. Both typically issue their first forecasts for the season around the end of February or the beginning of March.

From time to time, there are some other forecasts issued that are worth noting, and I try to include them when possible. The weather team from the local NBC station, Storm Team 4, have also been making their own predictions in recent years, and I’ve sometimes started including those.

What Month is Cherry Blossom Season in Washington DC?

The cherry blossoms in Washington DC usually bloom around the end of March into early April.

What Kind of Cherry Blossom Trees are in Washington DC?

There are about a dozen different kinds of cherry trees among the thousands around and near the Tidal Basin. The most famous and most numerous are Yoshino cherry trees.

Where Can I See the Cherry Blossoms in Washington DC?

While there are cherry trees scattered throughout the region, by far the most famous ones are centered around the Tidal Basin and the area near the National Mall. These are the ones you’ve probably seen in photos with famous monuments like the Jefferson Memorial and Washington Monument.

I’ve put together a detailed guide on how to get to the cherry blossoms as well as some suggestions for alternate (and less crowded) places to find cherry blossoms in and around DC.

Do I need a permit to take engagement photos at the cherry blossoms?

I mention this here because it is an issue that the NPS has now addressed more explicitly. And they’ve done so in such a way that clears up any lingering confusion that the previous policy caused.

The short answer is that most engagement photo sessions do not require a permit. The key factor now isn’t whether it’s a commercial or non-commercial shoot but whether it’s “low-impact.” And nearly all engagement photo sessions fall within that category (i.e., fewer than five people, limited equipment, limited impact on the area or people around them, etc.). I have more details here.

2024 Cherry Blossom Ten Miler

The 2024 Credit Union Cherry Blossom Ten Mile Run & 5K Run-Walk is scheduled for:

  • 5K: April 6, 2024
  • 10M: April 7, 2024

You can find more information, along with entry details, on their website.

  1. Issued February 29, 2024. []
  2. Issued February 27, 2024. []
  3. Issued February 29, 2024. []

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