In light of the cool temperatures that have continued for longer than expected, and are expected to continue for a while yet, both the National Park Service and the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang on March 23 pushed back their peak bloom predictions a second time. Their new predictions for DC's cherry blossoms are:
National Park Service: April 5 - 8 (revised April 3)
Washington Post: April 8 - 12
The historical average is around the last few days of March into the first few days of April. So a peak bloom in the April 8-12 window would be later than normal but something we've seen a few times in recent years.
Have DC's Cherry Blossoms Finished Blooming for 2018?
Yes, they're done for this year. They reached peak bloom on April 5.
After a warm February, March was cooler than normal and actually ended up being colder than February. So while the cherry blossoms got off to an early start, their progress slowed considerably in the cooler temperatures.
Cherry Blossom Peak Bloom Forecasts Issued for 2018: Details
The two peak bloom predictions to watch are the ones from the National Park Service and the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang. From time to time, others of note are issued and I'll include them here.
National Park Service. At a press conference on March 1, the National Park Service issued their first peak bloom prediction for the 2018 season. They predicted that peak bloom would fall sometime between March 17 to 20. On March 12, they revised that prediction to March 27 to 31. On March 23, they pushed it back again to April 8-12. On April 3 they adjusted it again, to March 5-8.
Washington Post Capital Weather Gang. On February 27, the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang posted their first peak bloom prediction of March 23 to 27, "centered on March 25." Late on March 12, they posted a revised prediction of March 30 to April 3. On March 23, they revised it again, pushing it back to April 8-12, "centered on April 10."
Common Questions About the Cherry Blossom Peak Bloom Forecasts
Do the Peak Bloom Predictions Change?
Yes. It's common for them to be revised as we get closer to the bloom. Which is why it's worth checking back to this page for the current forecasts or signing up to get updates using one of the methods described below.
How are the Peak Bloom Predictions Made?
There are three parts that go into the mix for making the NPS peak bloom predictions. The first is a mathematical model that basically assigns heat points for temperatures. Once the trees wake up from their winter dormancy, there are thresholds for a certain number of heat points to bring them to bloom.
The second is actually looking at the trees to see how they're developing. Sometimes the mathematical model doesn't match what they're actually seeing on the trees, as happened in 2018 when the model predicted a much earlier bloom than ended up happening because the buds got stuck in the green bud stage for much longer than expected.
The third part, and the most unstable element of the whole thing, consists of weather forecasts looking weeks ahead. We all know only too well just how unreliable forecasts that far ahead can be, and that's the main reason that the peak bloom predictions can change quite a lot and why the NPS horticulturalists aren't really comfortable with their predictions until about 10 days out.
What Does "Peak Bloom" Mean and Why Is It a Date Range?
The peak bloom date is the day on which the NPS horticulturalists judge that 70 percent of the Yoshino blossoms are out.
It's a specific day that the threshold is passed. So when a forecast expects peak bloom between such and such dates, it means that they expect the 70 percent threshold to be crossed at some point during that range.
It does not mean that the flowers will be at peak bloom for that entire date range. It also does not mean that you have to be there only on that specific day to catch the spectacle. More on that below.
I have more detail in a separate post explaining the ins and outs of peak bloom.
How Accurate Are Peak Bloom Forecasts?
The NPS horticulturalists are the first to point out that they're not really confident in their prediction until about 10 days out. And nature has a way of being unpredictable sometimes, as the 2017 bloom proved. There are so many variables that can come into play, especially since the prediction is based on long-range weather forecasts a month or more out.
Sometimes, the predictions nail it. Other times, Mother Nature has other plans, and it's not at all unusual for the forecasts to be revised as we get closer to the date as the actual weather conditions diverge from the long-range weather forecast they initially relied on.
So the peak bloom forecasts are the best information we have to go on, but that doesn't mean things always pan out as expected and it's quite common for the forecasts to change. So be sure to keep checking in for any updates. I keep the peak bloom forecasts page up to date with the latest information.
Are There Any Other Peak Bloom Forecasts?
The two to watch are the forecasts by the National Park Service and the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang. Typically, the National Park Service one is put out first--usually around the beginning of March--followed by the Capital Weather Gang's about a week later.
From time to time there are some other ones issued that are worth noting. I keep this page updated with the latest forecasts.
How Long Do the Flowers Stay Out? What if I Miss Peak Bloom?
The day the cherry blossoms reach peak bloom is not, of course, the only day you can see the flowers. At a minimum, you can expect a beautiful sight for at least a few days before the peak bloom date and at least a few days after. Sometimes they can be out for a couple of weeks.
How long they're out depends on weather conditions. In ideal conditions (cool, dry, calm), there can still be flowers to see a week or even more after the peak bloom date. In less-than-ideal conditions (wet, windy, hot, stormy), the flowers disappear more quickly. I've put together a timeline with photos from previous years to give an idea of what you can expect to see during the different stages of the bloom. And if you'd like to find out more about what peak bloom means I have a post on that.
The crucial point is that you don't have to be there precisely on that specific day to be greeted with a beautiful sight. There are still flowers to see in the days before and after that.
If you're too early for the main cherry blossoms, your timing might be good for magnolias. There's a particularly beautiful collection of them in the garden behind the Smithsonian Castle.
And if you're too late for the Yoshino peak bloom by two or three weeks, you might in luck for a different variety that is also very pretty: the Kwanzan cherry blossoms. Tulips are another spring highlight around the area.
Average Temperatures | Winter 2017-18
In trying to estimate when the cherry blossoms might bloom, what to look for, in particular, is how the winter shapes up--whether it's colder or warmer than the average. Temperatures through the winter and into the spring play the most important part in determining the cherry blossoms' schedule. Colder-than-average temperatures tend to push the bloom later, while warmer-than-average temperatures bring it forward. Temperatures in February and March tend to matter much more than December and January.
For an idea of how we're tracking so far during the winter and heading into the spring, here's how the monthly averages so far compare with historical normals1:
- April: 6.5° above normal (up until peak bloom)
- March: 3.2° below normal
- February: 6.3° above normal
- January: 0.3° below normal
- December: 0.5° below normal
- November: 0.2° above normal
For comparison, here are how much the monthly averages varied from the historical average for that month broken down by the months leading up to that year's bloom.
|December||January||February||March||Peak Bloom Date|
ˤ = partial month, in progress
* = up until peak bloom
Where to Stay
If you're coming from out of town, I've put together some suggestions on where to stay.
2018 National Cherry Blossom Festival
The 2018 National Cherry Blossom Festival is scheduled for March 20 through April 14. The parade is scheduled for April 14.
2018 Cherry Blossom Ten Mile Run
The 2018 Credit Union Cherry Blossom Ten Mile Run is scheduled for the morning of April 8. The event brings with it significant road closures for the morning of the race. The Tidal Basin remains open during the race, but getting to it can be trickier than normal.
You can find more information on how the race affects visiting the cherry blossoms here.
Cherry Blossom Visitor Guides
Planning on visiting DC to see the cherry blossoms? The uncertainty with predicting when the bloom will take place certainly makes things hard, but I've put together some information to help you make an educated guess to maximize your chances.
And if you're coming into town for the events of the cherry blossom festival or just for the flowers, I've also put together some ideas on where to stay and how to get to the cherry blossoms once you're here.
Washington DC Visitor Guides
If you're coming in from out of town, here are some useful travel guidebooks that can help you make the most of your visit. Because as stunning as the cherry blossoms are, there's an awful lot more to do and see in DC.
These are some of the most popular ones. Many of these are available as both traditional books and e-books that you can read on your phone or tablet.
- Elise Hartman Ford
- Publisher: FrommerMedia
- Fodor s Washington D C with Mount Vernon Alexandria Annapolis Full color Travel Guide
- Fodor's Travel Guides
- Lonely Planet Washington DC
- Lonely Planet, Karla Zimmerman, Regis St Louis
- DK Travel
- Publisher: DK Eyewitness Travel
And here are some interesting options for less traditional guidesbooks if you'd like an emphasis on exploring DC on foot or diving into some of the region's very rich history.
This post was last modified on May 23, 2018 9:06 pm