The experts at the National Park Service have issued their first peak bloom prediction for 2017. They predict that the Yoshino cherry blossoms will reach peak bloom sometime between March 14 and 17. The earliest so far on record is March 15, which happened in 1990. But we’ve had abnormally warm temperatures throughout the winter, and especially in February, which is what’s driving the early bloom this year.
The peak bloom date is the day on which the NPS cherry tree crew judge that 70 percent of the Yoshino blossoms are out.
Yesterday, the Washington Post‘s Capital Weather Gang posted their own peak bloom prediction: between March 15 and 19.
It’s not at all unusual for these initial predictions to be revised as we get closer to the gate. They rely in part on long-range weather forecasts, and sometimes those weather forecasts turn out to be wrong.
Here are some photos taken this morning. You can find many more in today’s Cherry Blossom Watch update.
How Accurate Are Peak Bloom Forecasts?
The experts at the National Park Service, some of whom have been tending the cherry trees for decades, and in some cases multi-generationally, are the first to point out that they’re not really confident in their prediction until about 10 days out. There are just too many variables that can come into play, especially since the prediction is based so heavily on the crystal ball of long-range weather forecasts.
It’s not at all unusual for the forecasts to be revised as we get closer to the date as the actual weather conditions diverge from the long-range weather forecast they initially relied on.
Are There Any Other Forecasts?
The two best peak bloom predictions are the ones issued by the National Park Service and the Washington Post‘s Capital Weather Gang. Both have a good track record, even if they’re not perfect every time.
From time to time there are some other ones issued that are worth noting, and I add those to the peak bloom predictions page.
What If I’m Too Late for Peak Bloom?
The day the cherry blossoms reach peak bloom is not, of course, the only day one can see the flowers. At minimum, you can expect a beautiful site for at least a few days before the peak bloom date and at least a few days after. Sometimes they can be out for a couple of weeks.
It’s impossible to say definitively exactly how long and how long after the peak bloom dates the flowers will be out, because it depends on the immediate weather conditions. In ideal conditions, there can still be flowers to see a week or even more after the peak bloom date. In less than ideal conditions, the flowers disappear more quickly. I’ve put together a timeline with photos from previous years to give an idea of what you can expect to see during the different stages of the bloom. And if you’d like to find out more about what peak bloom means I have a post on that.
The crucial point is that you don’t have to be there precisely on that specific day to be greeted with a beautiful sight. There are still flowers to see in the days before and after that.
And if you’re too late for the Yoshino peak bloom by two or three weeks, you might in luck for a different variety that is also very pretty: the Kwanzan cherry blossoms. Tulips are another spring highlight around the area.