2023 Peak Bloom Predictions
- National Park Service: March 22 - 25
- Washington Post: March 19 - 23
- NBC Storm Team 4: March 15 - 20
These are the current predictions, but it's not unusual for them to be revised as we get closer to peak bloom. You can always find the latest information on the 2023 cherry blossom peak bloom page.
Welcome to the 2023 Cherry Blossom Watch!
Aside from a couple of very cold but brief Arctic blasts, it has been a mostly warm winter, and all signs so far are pointing to an early bloom. January and the first half of February have averaged much warmer than normal. Some other fruit trees are blooming, the first daffodils are coming out, and the indicator tree has green buds.
That said, there's still time for cold air to come and settle in the area for a while and bring things to a grinding halt. So it's not a done deal just yet.
These charts show how the temperatures this winter compare with the historical average. As you can see, we've seen consistently warmer temperatures since that very cold snap right around Christmas (and one other shorter, and not quite as cold, cold snap earlier this month).
This first table shows the monthly averages leading up to the peak bloom for the past decade or so. The most important columns are March and February–the temperatures in those months closest to the bloom have the heaviest influence on the timing of the blossoms opening. A very warm early March can bring the bloom forward considerably (or, conversely, a much colder early March can slow things to a crawl).
| December | January | February | March | Peak Bloom Date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | -1.6 | +7.7 | +6.8 | +0.3ˤ | ? |
| 2021-22 | +5.9 | -2.9 | +2.6 | +5.0 | March 21 |
| 2020-21 | +1.7 | +2.6 | -1.2 | +4.2 | March 28 |
| 2019-20 | +2.4 | +6.4 | +4.8 | +7.3* | March 20 |
| 2018-19 | +3.8 | +1.2 | +3.2 | +0.0 | April 1 |
| 2017-18 | -0.5 | -0.3 | +6.3 | -3.2 | April 5 |
| 2016-17 | +2.1 | +6.1 | +8.7 | -0.7* | March 25 |
| 2015-16 | +11.5 | -1.1 | +0.9 | +6.5* | March 25 |
| 2014-15 | +4.0 | -0.4 | -8.7 | -1.5 | April 10 |
| 2013-14 | +2.6 | -3.8 | -1.2 | -3.9 | April 10 |
| 2012-13 | +5.9 | +4.3 | -0.7 | -3.0 | April 9 |
| 2011-12 | +4.9 | +4.7 | +5.3 | +10 | March 20 |
| 2010-11 | - | -1.3 | +3.6 | -0.9 | March 29 |
ˤ = partial month, in progress
* = up until peak bloom
And here's how we're tracking on a day-by-day basis this winter. The red line represents the historical average temperature. The blue line represents the corresponding daily averages for this winter. In other words, above the red line is warmer than normal; below the red line is below average. The data used in this graph are taken from the National Weather Service's recordings from National Airport, which you can see just across the Potomac from the Tidal Basin.
And here's a similar but yet slightly different way of looking at it. This shows more directly how far each day has departed from the historical average. The horizontal 0 line represents the historical average. Each vertical bar represents a day. A bar above the 0 line represents warmer than the historical average. A bar below the 0 line represents cooler than the historical average. As you can see, there are so far many more days above the average–and by a good margin–than there are below the average.
How it Looks at the Tidal Basin This Morning
There's not a lot to see on most of the trees just yet. If you look closely, you can find the occasional green buds starting to poke through.
These photos were all taken this morning.
The Indicator Tree
The indicator tree is a tree just to the east of the Jefferson Memorial that consistently progresses ahead of the others. I have more information on it here.
As of this morning, it has green buds.
These were all taken this morning.
Tulip Magnolias
The tulip magnolias are coming along but not yet blooming. These are the trees at the George Mason Memorial today.
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